Over my fifteen years in the uniform business, I’ve seen hundreds of clients struggle with the same problem: the inventory paradox. They order a massive initial batch of uniforms and manage to outfit their current team perfectly. Then, just a few months later, a surge of new hires arrives, and the stockroom is left with only 4XL shirts and XS trousers.
The immediate result is chaos, with businesses scrambling for small, expensive rush orders, delaying onboarding, and holding up new employees who can’t start until they look the part. This cycle is inefficient, costly, and generates unnecessary waste.
Precise forecasting and intelligent inventory planning are crucial components of operational efficiency. By accurately predicting the sizes you’ll need for staff turnover and growth, you avoid tying up valuable budget in stagnant stock and ensure seamless onboarding for every new team member.
What Is Uniform Size Forecasting?
Uniform size forecasting is the process of using historical data, industry standards, and projected staffing changes to accurately predict the size distribution required for future uniform orders. It moves beyond simply guessing or taking a snapshot of your current staff.
This process involves treating uniform inventory like any other critical operational asset. You are predicting demand not just for the items but for the specific sizes of those items.
Effective forecasting enables two key outcomes:
- Reduced Waste: You minimize over-ordering specific sizes that rarely sell, preventing excess inventory from gathering dust or being prematurely scrapped.
- Increased Speed: You ensure the common sizes needed for high-turnover roles or rapid growth are always on hand, significantly cutting down on wait times and rush fees.
How to Forecast Uniform Sizes for New Hires (Step-by-Step)
Forecasting size needs is a methodical process that removes the guesswork. Here are the steps I advise our clients to follow:
1. Review Past Orders
Start with concrete evidence. The first step is to analyze the size distribution from your last three to five bulk uniform orders. This is your baseline demand curve.
- Example: If 55% of your past orders were Medium and Large, those sizes become your primary forecast focus. You must determine the percentage breakdown of XS through 5XL for every item, from lightweight T-shirts to heavy-duty jackets.
2. Factor in Turnover & New Hires
Your baseline data must be adjusted based on anticipated staffing changes. Work closely with HR and operations managers to determine:
- Expected Turnover Rate: If you know 15% of your warehouse staff turns over annually, you must ensure you have stock to outfit 15% of that team in common sizes throughout the year.
- Seasonal Spikes: Factor in temporary or seasonal staff (e.g., summer retail associates or holiday logistics teams) who will require uniforms for short periods.
3. Use Industry Benchmarks
While your internal data is best, comparing it to industry benchmarks is a crucial check. Our team at All Seasons Uniforms tracks broad sizing trends across similar sectors:
- Healthcare Scrubs: Tends to skew toward a more balanced M/L/XL distribution due to relaxed fits.
- Hospitality Polos: Often heavier on Small and Medium for front-of-house staff.
- Construction/Industrial: Higher demand for XL and above, especially for outerwear and heavy-duty garments like men’s work pants where mobility is key. If your internal data shows an unusual skew (e.g., 90% Small), compare it against what similar companies order to ensure your data isn’t skewed by an anomaly.
4. Plan Buffer Stock Strategically
No matter how precise your forecasting, you must incorporate a safety net, or buffer stock. This is where many companies fail by ordering the same number of 3XL shirts as Mediums, even when Medium is four times more popular.
- I recommend maintaining a 10-15% buffer stock of your most popular sizes based on your past demand curve. This ensures 80% of your new hires can be outfitted instantly.
- Avoid large buffer stock for peripheral sizes (XS, 4XL) unless your demographic data specifically demands it.
5. Track and Adjust
Forecasting is not a one-time activity. Your stock room must function as a live data source. Every time a uniform is issued to a new hire or returned due to incorrect sizing, that data must be logged. Update your size distribution forecast every six months based on this real usage data and any changes in your workforce demographics.
Tools & Methods for Smarter Forecasting
Modern uniform management requires moving beyond clipboards and handwritten lists. Efficient tracking relies on integrated tools:
- Spreadsheets (Advanced): While basic, customized spreadsheets (like Google Sheets or Excel) can automate calculations, using historical percentages to generate a predicted order list based on your required quantity.
- Inventory Software: Dedicated inventory management systems or uniform-specific software from providers like us track real-time stock levels, record when uniforms were issued, and automatically flag low-stock common sizes. These tools virtually eliminate data entry errors and provide clear visual reports.
- Supplier-Provided Tools: Many uniform providers now offer online portals where you can view past order history, turnover metrics, and adjust buffer stock digitally, streamlining the entire ordering cycle and reducing manual mistakes.
Balancing Cost & Efficiency
The main reason companies hesitate to order adequate buffer stock is the perceived cost. This often leads to a false economy:
- Over-ordering: If you order 500 units of sizes you barely use, that cash is essentially locked away in garments that will likely become obsolete before they are ever worn. This ties up operational budgets and incurs warehousing costs.
- Under-ordering: If you run out of Medium shirts, you face expensive rush delivery fees, higher per-unit costs for small orders, and—worst of all—a delay in getting a productive new employee on the floor.
- Forecasting: It allows you to achieve the critical balance. By identifying the high-demand sizes and stocking them heavily, you maximize your volume discount and ensure efficiency. By keeping the low-demand sizes to a minimum (only what is required for current staff plus a small safety net), you minimize capital waste.
Planning for Growth & Turnover
A common mistake is treating uniform inventory as static. A business that is succeeding is always changing, and its uniform needs must reflect that dynamism. Forecasting is fundamentally about preparing for the future.
- Seasonal Spikes: Retailers and logistics firms must anticipate the needs of seasonal employees well in advance. Accurate forecasting ensures you have enough stock of temporary uniforms ready the moment training begins.
- New Contracts/Locations: If your company wins a large new contract or opens a satellite office, your forecasting data for the closest existing facility should be used to model the initial stock for the new team.
- High-Turnover Roles: Certain entry-level or temporary positions inherently have higher turnover. Dedicated forecasts for these roles ensure continuous availability of their specific required uniform items.
By integrating robust forecasting into your procurement strategy, you move uniform management from a reactive headache to a proactive, cost-saving asset, guaranteeing that every new hire starts their job looking professional and feeling ready.
Sources
https://www.allseasonsuniforms.com/mens-unisex-clothing/pants
https://www.cipd.org/en/knowledge/factsheets/turnover-retention-factsheet
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10721049
https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/importance-of-budgeting-in-business
https://www.cips.org/intelligence-hub/procurement
https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/labor-force.html
https://www.doi.gov/pmb/hr/onboarding-exiting
About the Author
Nick Warrick
Nick Warrick is the Sales Manager at All Seasons Uniforms. With over 15 years of experience in the work uniform business, he has worked with hundreds of clients across 20 different industries. Holding bachelor’s degrees in both Business Administration and Information Technology, Nick revamped the company’s online presence, offering its customers a new uniform shopping experience.